Adam Prudhomme
Editor
Modelling of cases show Ontario’s fourth wave of COVID-19 could peak by mid-October.
Speaking with local media on Friday via Skype, acting KFLA Public Health Medical Officer of Health Dr. Hugh Guan noted the numbers show the fourth wave will soon be here. On Friday the local health unit reported six new cases, bringing the active case count up to 18.
“Our cases are rising locally, slowly but it is surely rising a bit,” said Guan. “We may also be at the start of the fourth wave, the same as the rest of the province. Across the province today there were over 800 new cases and the seven-day average is also increasing across the province. Looking more deeply at the outcomes that we care about, the ICU admissions that we care about, there are 169 ICU admissions as of yesterday. That unfortunately is above the 150-bed threshold that we discussed last year where by surgeries and other procedures need to slow down. The seven-day average for ICU admissions are slowly creeping up also. It just points to the fact that we are beginning that fourth wave for COVID-19.”
Guan did say he is confident the KFLA region would avoid spikes as high as the more populated GTA region will see, as has been consistent throughout the pandemic.
On the vaccination front the KFLA region is at 84.5 per cent first doses for those 12 and older and 78.1 per cent with a second dose.
“(The local vaccination rate) has been increasing over the last day or two as there was the vaccine certification announcements earlier this week,” said Guan, referring to the Ontario government announcing it would soon be implementing a vaccine passport program for select venues. “Whereby as of Sept. 22, certain indoor (spaces) where folks can not be masked or for different reasons such as a restaurant or bar, will require a vaccine certification at the door before being allowed indoor dining and (or access to) gyms….After Oct. 22 there will be electronic verification process from what the Ontario government has mentioned. Because of that announcement we have actually seen an increase in first doses so that is a good thing.”
Guan continued to encourage residents to roll up their sleeve and get their shot.
“We continue to know that vaccines are safe and they’re effective,” said Guan. “We continue to see that if you’re vaccinated that you’re anywhere from a 25 to 50 times lower chance of being in an ICU compared to if you’re unvaccinated and got sick with COVID.”
He also noted the numbers show people are five to 10 times less likely to become infected with COVID-19 if they’re fully vaccinated.
Touching upon recent protests held against healthcare workers, Guan called for compassion towards frontline workers.
“Please be kind to your healthcare workers,” said Guan. “It’s been a long year and half for many healthcare workers. We’ve all been working tirelessly for a year and half now either treating or containing outbreaks and recently over the last nine months or so vaccinating. So please, please be kind to the healthcare workers at the frontlines.”
With in-class learning starting up this week, Guan said measures are in place to ensure a safe return to school.
“We all agree that school is important for the physical, social and mental wellbeing for pretty much all the kids in our area,” said Guan. “We have teams working on Public Health measures with the schools to prevent COVID transmission and if there is COVID transmission then they’re rapidly containing and managing it to ensure that schools are open. I know that folks have spent a lot of time working on the protocols, working on the measures and outbreak containing measures and just making sure that the school year can be as safe as possible. We really want to make sure that kids continue to stay in school. The last year and a half has been very disruptive to education and we know that education is super, super important, we want kids to be in school as much as possible.”
Finally, Guan offered a warning against attempting to self-medicate against COVID-19. In particular he commented on the growing trend of people using Ivermectin, which is typically used to treat parasite infections, more commonly used in veterinary medicine.
“Ivermectin is an anti-parasitic medication that is not shown at all in the medical literature to be a useful treatment for COVID-19,” said Guan. “We know that there are treatments such as steroids or other biologic agents for COVID-19 treatment. Ivermectin is used for parasitic infection, however COVID is a virus so you’re just using the wrong medication.”
“I know there’s a lot of misinformation out there about Ivermectin but we know in the medical field that Ivermectin is not at all useful for COVID treatment, it may even be a harm given that people are just ordering it themselves without any understanding of dosages or anything like that,” Guan added. “I would highly advise people to not self treat with Ivermectin.”
For a list of COVID-19 vaccination clinics, visit https://www.kflaph.ca/en/healthy-living/covid-19-vaccine.aspx.